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Political Science 300.301 & Middle East Studies 300.004: Oil, Water and War

Tu Th 12:30-1:50, SOM003 (Class Registration Number -- Psc 31478 or MES 32553)

Instructor James P. Bennett, jbennett@maxwell.syr.edu , 443-1749 Office 405b Maxwell Hall, Office hours Tu 11-12:15, Th 2-3:30, and by appointment.

Course Assistant Sean Robert Miskell, srmiskel@maxwell.syr.edu, Office 024 Eggers Hall, Office hours Tu 2:15-3:45, W 1:45-3:15

Fresh water and hydrocarbons (of which our interest is primarily in petroleum and natural gas) are unevenly distributed over the earth. Their natural locations do not correspond closely the locations of people who wish to consume them. Demands for fresh water and for petroleum and natural gas continue to grow rapidly. Supplies generally have not been increasing as rapidly. Many policy makers and scholars expect increased conflict over the control of these two commodities. Some experts have claimed that, whereas the 20th century was characterized by a global struggle for petroleum, the 21st century will be marked by a struggle for water. But we haven't finished the "Petroleum Age" just yet. Violent conflict, if it occurs, may arise in the form of internal war or inter-state war or perhaps even the emerging phenomenon that we call "international terrorism." Non-violent conflict, including market competition, may take new forms as well. This course introduces us to the current level of knowledge about historical connections among war, on the one hand, and the resources of petroleum and fresh water, on the other. It also present alternative claims about how competition for these goods will be expressed in the future.

The purpose of the course is to prepare students to engage in debates about policies that states and other entities might pursue to satisfy needs for petroleum and water.

The class will divide into seven or eight small 'consulting firms,' each hypothetically working for a different client. In the first half of the course, the 'firms' study petroleum problems. At the end of the first half, they deliver collective reports to the class in a symposium which extends over two class meetings. In the second half of the semester, they repeat the exercise, addressing water problems. Most Thursday meetings of the class will be devoted to discussions among consultants -- to conceptualize, plan, research, and write a policy paper for the particular client. Most Tuesday meetings will feature lecture and discussion.

Every consulting firm consists of a manager plus several specialists. The manager will be graded on the basis of the firm's entire report. He or she will additionally submit a one-page progress report, describing the work of the previous week, at every class on Tuesday. With the advice of the specialists, the manager will outline the report and assign specific component of it to the specialists. The specialists will be graded on their own component of the report (submitted to the instructors separately) and upon the entire report.

If you have not completed a solid, university-level course on international politics, I strongly urge you to postpone taking this course. If you expect to graduate in May 2008, and if you require significant class time for job search or interviews, and/or leisure (well-earned, no doubt), I suggest that you not choose this course.

Readings:

To get us started, three books have been ordered at Follett's Orange Student Bookstore (Marshall Square):

Michael T. Klare, Resource Wars, Owl Books, 2002. ISBN: 0805055762. [Denoted K in the schedule below.]

Daniel Yergin, The Prize, Free Press, 1993. ISBN: 0671799320. [Denoted Y in the schedule below.]

Ken Conca, Governing Water, MIT Press 2006. [Denoted C in schedule below.] The instructor will work with each 'consulting firm' to identify additional useful literature.

Formal requirements:

Two reports (individual and collective components), each worth a maximum of 25 points.

Five unannounced short quizzes covering assigned reading and lectures, scored 0-6. The top four test scores will aggregate to a maximum of 24 points.

The Instructor's estimation of your contribution to the work of your consulting firm and to the class as a whole, maximum of 12 points

Peer estimation (by the members of your firm) of your contribution to the work of your firm, maximum of 7 points at each firm.

Total maximum score: 100 points.

There is no final examination as such. Note that the final consulting reports are due on the day of their presentation to the class.

If you experience any learning disability, as described here, please see me to work out an accommodation.

This course applies the university's policy of academic integrity . Violation of this policy results in a grade of F for the course and possibly other disciplinary measures applied by the university.

Email is generally the quickest way to communicate with me outside class, but I sometimes do not read my email over weekends. I do not accept papers by email. After Thursday, 10 April, I will not sign 'drop' forms.

Problems with petroleum:

1. What production can we expect from the Caspian Sea region (client: Directorate General of Energy of the European Union)

2. How can Brunei best develop its petroleum claims in the South China Sea (client: Sultan of Brunei)

3. What are the actual petroleum resources of Saudi Arabia (client: TotalFinaElf )

4. Is trading of petroleum and petroleum products on the NYMEX fair? (client: China Ministry of Commerce)

5. How can the global economy best recycle petrodollars? (client: CITI Group, Global Transaction Services)

6. Is international transportation of liquefied natural gas safe? (client: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Turkey)

7. How significantly should we invest in exploration of the arctic? (client: StatoilHydro)

Problems with water:

1. The Tigris-Euphrates Basin

2. The Jordan River system, including Golan

3. The North American Rio Grande Basin

4. Access to potable water as a human right

5. Restoration of the Iraqi marshlands

6. Malaysia and Singapore: asymmetries of wealth and resources

7. Water pollution in China

8. Utilizing the water resources of the North American Great Lakes

('#' indicates that there will be no quiz on the corresponding date)

Petroleum and natural gas: Firms

1. # January 15 (Tuesday) Introduction (K chapters 1-5)

2. # January 17 (Thursday) Petroleum to World War I (Y chapters 1-8) Notes

3. January 22 (Tuesday) Petroleum in the Interwar Period (Y 9-15) Notes Quiz

4. January 24 (Thursday) Consulting firms organize and receive instructions from their client Notes Quiz Recycling

5. January 29 (Tuesday) Oil in World War II and the onset of the Cold War (Y 16-21) Notes Notes Quiz Answers

6. January 31 (Thursday) Consulting firms discuss plan research Quiz Answers

7. February 5 (Tuesday) Decolonization and state claims to ownership (Y 22-24) Notes

8. February 7 (Thursday) Consulting firms assess information resources

9. February 12 (Tuesday) "Countries vs companies" (Y 25-28) Quiz Notes Answers

10. February 14 (Thursday) Consulting firms begin drafting Quiz

11. February 19 (Tuesday) The importance of OPEC (Y 29-33) Quiz Notes

12. February 21 (Thursday) Drafting and 'repairs' Items Quiz

13. February 26 (Tuesday) Developments since the end of Yergin's study (Y 34-36; Tertzakian, chapters 3-4) Also consult: chronology http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/chron.html (and link at bottom to detailed chronology for 2005-6) Quiz Notes

14. February 28 (Thursday) Consulting firms prepare media for presentation; specialists must deliver their components of the report to their manager and to the instructors by 5 pm Quiz

15. # March 4 (Tuesday) Final Reports on Petroleum, Session 1 Full schedule

16. # March 6 (Thursday) Final Reports on Petroleum, Session 2 Spring Break March 11-18

17. March 18 (Tuesday) Final Reports on Petroleum, Session 3, and Evaluation. (Tertzakian chapters 18-23.) Quiz

Water: Firms

18. March 20 (Thursday) Sources and uses of fresh water (C 1,2) Consulting firms receive instructions from their client and plan research (K 6,7,9) Notes

19. March 25 (Tuesday) (C 5,7; Aaron T. Wolf, "Conflict and cooperation along international waterways, " Water Policy 1,2 (1998), pp. 251-265.) Some starting points for research. What agreements have been negotiated? Quiz Notes Notes

20. March 27 (Thursday) Consulting firms assess information resources Quiz

21. April 1 (Tuesday) Sharing, conservation and technologies to reduce demand (C 8) Quiz .

22. April 3 (Thursday) Consulting firms begin drafting (C 9) Quiz

23. April 8 (Tuesday) Control of water as political leverage Notes Quiz

24. April 10 (Thursday) Do we have a right to water as a private good? Quiz Drafting and preparation for media; specialists must deliver their components of the report to their manager and to the instructors by 5 pm.

25. April 15 (Tuesday) Is the 21st century going to be different? Quiz

26. #April 17 (Thursday) Final Reports on Water, Session 1 (Firms 1, 3 6)

# April 22 (Tuesday) Mayfest -- no class

27. #April 24 (Thursday) Final Reports on Water, Session 2 All Firms' written reports are due. (Firms 2, 5, 7)

28. April 29 (Tuesday) Final Report, Session 3. Connections among "oil," "water" and war: what have we learned? What do we need next to learn? What do we need to do? Quiz (Firm 4)