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Making Foreign Policy
Psc 359.001 (class number 24205 ) MW 3:45PM-5:05PM, Hall of Languages 114
Instructor James P. Bennett, office 405b Maxwell Hall, 443-1749,
email
Course Assistant Sean Miskell, srmiskel@maxwell.syr.edu, Office 024 Eggers Hall, Office hours tba
Focus:
Aristotle said that decision is deliberation followed by choice. Many studies of foreign policy focus on choice but ignore deliberation. We wish to learn about both. This course explores how foreign policies are made and expressed. We take the position of analysts employed by a fictional not-for-profit consulting firm, "International Policymaking Assessment," with offices in London and Hong Kong. Our first topic is "War in the South Caucasus." Analysts will attempt to infer and evaluate the foreign policies which led to war earlier this month; they will try to follow retroactively the processes which produced those policies; and they will follow events to try to project the near-term consequences of war. Our choice of second and third topics will respond to events in the world.
In parallel, we shall read two texts on making, comparing and evaluating foreign policies.
Your primary work for the semester is the preparation of one report on an important aspect of each of three topics.
The course grade:
1. Seven quizzes will occur in the course of the semester. Thirty points of the course grade is derived from the average of the five highest quiz grades. Each 10-minute quiz will present one question drawn from the reading assigned for the preceding class meeting or the material presented in the last lecture before the date of the quiz. Quizzes occur at the beginning of the class meeting on random dates; a quiz might occur on any date in maroon type.
2. Students will complete graded draft and final research reports on three topics during the semester. Draft and final reports earn up to 10 points. Thus the report point total comes to a maximum of 60 points.
3. Ten points of the grade (aproximately equal to an increment or decrement of one-helf grade step, e.g., B+ -> A- or A- -> B+) comes from the judgments of the instructor and course assistant of your class participation and helpfulness to the firm's activities. If the instructor feels that you are not fulfilling responsibly your obligations to a group, he may in unusual circumstances lower your course grade one full grade step (e.g., B+ ->C+), but he will not do this without having given you a written warning prior to the 23rd class meeting of the course.
4. If your report is selected for a presentation, your presentation can earn up to 5 points. The criteria for selection will be discussed in class. Consider the points earned at presentation(s) as bonuses: the total points from the three activities enumerated above total to a maximum of 100 points.
5. There is no midterm test or final exam. All reports are due in hardcopy by 6 pm on the date indicated.
Required Readings:
Two textbooks have been ordered at Follett's Orange Student Bookstore.
Christopher Hill, The Changing Politics of Foreign Policy, Palgrave-Macmillan 2003. ISBN: 0333754239 and 978-0333754238
David A. Welch, Painful Choices: A Theory of Foreign Policy Change, Princeton
University Press 2005. ISBN: ISBN-10: 0691123403
and 978-0691123400
Administrative Matters:
If you experience any learning disability described
here
Schedule:
Note: The activities of each class meeting may be adjusted to respond to world events. Short required readings will be added from time to time. Items in brackets are not required reading, but the instructors' presentations will heavily draw from them.]
1. August 25 Overview of the course
Read: International Crisis Group, three reports on conflict in the South Caucasus: background, emerging crisis, near term consequences (You must first register here.)
Mod(ule of theory) 1: What's policy, what's foreign, what's making?
Practice 1: The Army of Georgia launches an attack on its (sic) breakaway province of S. Ossetia. Why?
2. August 27 (1) Policy inputs and outputs, implementation, consequences, outcomes, unanticipated outcomes; comparing policies. What should we look at?
(2) Introduction to the first topic, "War in the Caucasus" UN map Orienting chronology News News News News News News-editorial Editorial
Select your research responsibilities using this form
Topic 1, London Office; Topic 1, Hong Kong Office
Mod 2: Two perspectives on others: etic and emic
Practice 2: Inferring reasons for the actions of political leaders
[Robert Pastor, ed., A Century's Journey: How the Great Powers Shape the World. Basic Books, 2000]
3. September 3 Principal concepts
Read: Hill Ch. 1,2; (Welch Ch 1 postponed)
Mod 3 Rationality-2: 'Unitary rational actor'; utilty; abstraction and aggregation
Practice 3: Choosing a policy of "collective security"
4. September 8 Comparing policy processes: some significances of 'constitutional' settings BBC "flashpoints"
Read: Hill, Ch 3,4
Practice 4: Some comments upon policy making in democratic vs authoritarian systems, in executive-dominant vs legislative-dominant systems, and in centralized vs decentralized systems
5. September 10 A brief review: The 'Big 3' paradigms of political analysis "blowback"
Read: Hill, Ch 5,6
Mod 4 Core claims of Realism(s) "Core claims" Hans Morgenthau's "catechism"
Mod 5 Core claims of Liberalism(s) "Generations" of liberal thought
[Tim Dunne, "Liberalism" in J. Baylis and S. Smith, The Globalization of World Politics, 1st or 2nd eds., Oxford University Press.]
[Doyle, Michael. Ways of War and Peace: Realism, Liberalism, and Socialism. W. W. Norton, 1997.]
[An excellent summary of the claims asserted by Realists and Liberals is found in Chapters 7-10 and 13 in John Baylis and Steve Smith, eds., The Globalization of World Politics, 3rd ed. Oxford University Press, 2001. On reserve in Bird Libary]
[Mod 6 Core claims of Marxisms(s)]
6. September 15 Choosing rationally Transnistria, yes, poor little Transnistria!
Read: Hill, Ch 9,10
Draft reports on Topic 1 are due at 6 pm.
Mod 7 Varieties of 'rationality' (1) 'bounded rationality' (cognitively, resource-limited, knowlege-limited); 'satisficing'; rational expectations; prospect theory
[Herbert A. Simon, "Theories of Decision-Making in Economics and Behavioral Science," American Economic Review 49, 3, (1959) 253-283. Stable URL: ]
Jack S. Levy, "Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations," International Studies Quarterly 41, 1 (1997), 87-112 Stable URL:
7. September 17 Discerning the 'national interest'News News ahead
Read: Welch, Ch 2
Mod 8 Perception of the 'self' and 'other'
Martin Hollis and Steve Smith, "Roles and Reasons in Foreign Policy Decision Making,"British Journal of Political Science 16, 3 ( 1986), 269-286. Stable URL:
8. September 22 Identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities -- who does it and how? News News Arctic news
Read: Hill Ch 7,8,11
9. September 24 Overview of processes, part 1 : formulating options, setting agendas, limiting voice (participation). News
Final reports on Topic 1 are due at 6 pm.
Mod 9 Bureaucratic politics Graham T. Allison; Morton H. Halperin, "Bureaucratic Politics: A Paradigm and Some Policy Implications," World Politics 24, Supplement (1972), 40-79. Stable URL:
Mod 10 Loosely coupled decision making systems: 'behavioral' theory of the firm
[Richard M. Cyert and Herbert Simon, The Behavioral Theory of the Firm, chapter 5.] (on 2-hour Reserve in Bird Library).
Jack S. Levy, "Organizational Routines and the Causes of War, "International Studies Quarterly 30, 2 (1986) 193-222. Stable URL: ]
Practice 7 How bureaucracies exert power
David Mitchell, Making Foreign Policy: Presidential Management Of The Decision-making Process, Ashgate, 2005, chapters 7 and 8 (on 2-hour Reserve in Bird Library).
10. September 29 Courts and foreign policy
Presentations in class on Topic 1.
Read Welch, Ch 3
11. October 6 (1) Overview of processes, part 2: small group interactions, exit and access, lobbying participants. (2) Introduction to Topic 2. News Item News
Practice 8 Exercising power, leverage and bandwagoning, domestic pressures[David S. Scharfstein and Jeremy C. Stein, "Herd Behavior and Investment", American Economic Review 80, No. 3 1990), 465-479. Stable URL: ]
Mod 11 Can public opinion influence leadership?
Margaret G. Hermann and Joe D. Hagan, "International Decision Making: Leadership Matters, "Foreign Policy 110, Special Edition (1998), 124-137. Stable URL:
[Neta C. Crawford, "The Passion of World Politics: Propositions on Emotion and Emotional Relationships," International Security 24, 4 (2000), 116-156.]
[David McElhinney and Tony Proctor, "The concept of entrapment and decision-making,"Management Decision 43, 2 (2005), 189 - 202.]
Mod 12 Advising and advisory systems
[Alexander L. George, "The Case for Multiple Advocacy in Making Foreign Policy," American Political Science Review 66, 3 (1972),751-785. Stable URL: ]
12. October 8 (Most of the meeting is allocated to taking stock of our firm's work: mid-semester review.) Topic two assignments News News
Read Welch, Ch 5
13. October 13 Overview of processes, part 3 : intra-group negotiation, exercising choice.
Read Welch, Ch 4
Mod 14 Making decisions under pressure, risky shift, conservative shift and 'Groupthink'
[Paul 't Hart, Groupthink in Government, A Study of Small Groups and Policy Failure, Johns Hopkins Press 1990, Part II.]
Eric Stern and Bengt Sundelius, "The essence of 'Groupthink'," Mershon International Studies Review 38, 1 (1994),101-107. Stable URL:
14. October 15 Formal expressions of policy in speeches and documents.
Read Welch, Ch 6
15. October 20 Less formal expressions of policy in speeches, documents and through the media. Draft notes
16. October 22 Barriers to learning about actual foreign policies: secrecy, self-interested accounts, and forgetfulness
Draft reports on Topic 2 are due.
17. October 27 Comparing processes of foreign policy making
[James N. Rosenau, Comparting Foreign Policies, Wiley, 1975.] [Pastor, ibid.]
18. October 29 Briefing on the simulation exercise
Final reports on Topic 2 are due.
19. November 3 Presentations in class on Topic 2.
20. November 5 Introduction to Topic 3: Begin exercise on crisis decision making: Iteration 1, Session 1
21. November 10 Iteration 1, Session 2
22. November 12 Assessment of Iteration 1; The formal written policy statement Assignment for Topic 3:>> Assignment: Oil Shockwave simulations
Practice 8 Examples from US practice
Practice 9 NSDM93
[Kerry Mullins and Aaron Wildavsky, "The Procedural Presidency of George [H. W.] Bush,"Political Science Quarterly 107, 1 (1992), 31-62. Stable URL: ]
23. November 17 Exercise continues: Iteration 2, Session 1 News
24. November 19 Iteration 2, Session 2
[The formal "policy review"
Practice 11 Speechmaking; rhetorical salesmanship]
Ronald Reagan, 23 March 1983, "Address," CNN Archive
[John M. Jones and Robert C. Rowland, "The Weekly Radio Addresses of President Ronald Reagan," Journal of Radio Studies 7, 2 (2000), 257-281. Not available in digital form]
Mod 15 Formal political argumentation
25. November 24 Assessment of Iteration 2
Practice 12 Public diplomacy
26. December 1 News
Final reports on Topic 3 are due.
27. December 3
Presentations in class on topic 3 (Presentation prepared by A. Morris)