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Making Foreign Policy
Psc 359.001 (class number 52303) MW 5:15-6:35PM, HBC Kittredge Auditorium
Instructor James P. Bennett, office 405b Maxwell Hall, 443-1749,
email
Course Assistant Abolghasem Bayyenat, abayyena@syr.edu, Office 025 Eggers Hall, Office hours W 3-4:30, M 3-4.
Focus:
Aristotle said that decision is deliberation followed by choice. Many studies of foreign policy focus on choice but ignore deliberation. We wish to learn about both. This course explores how foreign policies are made and expressed. We take the position of analysts employed by a fictional not-for-profit consulting firm, "International Policymaking Assessment," with offices in London and Paris. Our first topic is "New Era for the Foreign Policies of Syria?" Analysts will attempt to infer and evaluate the current foreign policies of Syria; they will try to follow retroactively the processes which produced those policies; and they will follow unfolding events to try to project the near-term shifts in policies and their probable consequences. The second topic will engage us in producing case studies to test hypotheses about the conditions under which foreign policy changes significantly.
Your primary work for the semester is the preparation reports on two topics and an evaluation of a simulation exercise on crisis decision making which we shall conduct toward the end of the semester.
The course grade:
1. Six quizzes will occur in the course of the semester. A maximum wenty-five points of the course grade is derived from the average of the five highest quiz grades. Each 10-minute quiz will present one question drawn from the reading assigned for the preceding class meeting or the material presented in the last lecture before the date of the quiz. Quizzes occur at the beginning of the class meeting on random dates; a quiz might occur on any date in maroon type.
2. Students will complete graded draft and final research reports on two topics during the semester. Draft and final reports earn up to 15 points. Thus the report point total comes to a maximum of 60 points. Additionally, a shorter paper (no draft, only a final version) evaluating the simulation exercise will earn up to 10 points.
3. Five points of the grade comes from the judgments of the instructor and course assistant of your class participation and especially simulations. If the instructor feels that you are not fulfilling responsibly your obligations to a group, he may in unusual circumstances lower your course grade one full grade step (e.g., B+ ->C+), but he will not do this without having given you a written warning prior to the 23rd class meeting of the course.
4. If your report is selected for a presentation, your presentation can earn up to 5 points. The criteria for selection will be discussed in class. Consider the points earned at presentation(s) as bonuses: the total points from the three activities enumerated above total to a maximum of 100 points.
5. There is no midterm test or final exam. All reports are due in hardcopy by 6 pm on the date indicated.
Required Readings:
Most required readings are available in e-journals to which the university subscribes or else freely accessible on the web.
One textbook has been ordered at Follett's Orange Student Bookstore.
David A. Welch, Painful Choices: A Theory of Foreign Policy Change, Princeton
University Press 2005. ISBN: ISBN-10: 0691123403
and 978-0691123400
Administrative Matters:
If you experience any learning disability described
here
Schedule:
Note: The activities of each class meeting may be adjusted to respond to world events. Short required readings will be added from time to time. Items in brackets are not required reading, but the instructors' presentations will heavily draw from them.]
1. January 20 Overview of the course: focus on changing foreign policies; Syria as an interesting case; formulating an evaluating theories of making foreign policy.
Read: Jeremy M. Sharp, "Syria: Background and U.S. Relations," Congressional Research Service, March 2009.
Read: Paul Salem, "The Imperatives of Syrian-Israeli Peace, Fletcher Forum of World Affairs", Winter/Spring 2009
[Theodore Kattouf, et al., "When we meet with Syria, what
should we say? What should we hope to hear?" Middle East Policy
14:2 (2007), 1-21.]
2. January 25 How can one explain or understand changes in the foreign policy of Syria?
Read: International Crisis Group, "Syria after Lebanon, Lebanon after Syria," Middle East Report 39, 12 April 2005. (You must first register here.)
Mod(ule of theory) 1: What's policy, what's foreign, what's making?
Practice 1: Constraints and opportunities for the foreign policy of Syria
Select your research responsibilities using this form
3. January 27 (1) When comparing policies, what should we look at? [If there is a quiz, it will be a single question about the reading listed on January 25, Int'l Crisis Group, "Syria after Lebanon...."]
(2) What has the government of Syria done lately?
Mod 2: Two perspectives on others: etic and emic -- we need to use 'em both!
Practice 2: Inferring reasons for the actions of political leaders: how do we usually try to do this? (Aha! We impute rationality.)
3. February 1 Assignment of policy analysts
Mod 3 Rationality, its several meanings: 'Unitary rational actor'; utilty; abstraction and aggregation
Practice 3: Choosing a policy, for example, a policy of "collective security"
4. February 3 Comparing policy processes: some significances of 'constitutional' settings Quiz answers
Practice 4: Some comments upon policy making in democratic vs authoritarian systems, in executive-dominant vs legislative-dominant systems, and in centralized vs decentralized systems
5. February 8 A brief review: The 'Big 3' paradigms of political analysis. Each offers distinctive ways to identify policy change.
Mod 4 Core claims of Realism(s) "Core claims" Hans Morgenthau's "catechism"
Mod 5 Core claims of Liberalism(s) "Generations" of liberal thought
[Tim Dunne, "Liberalism" in J. Baylis and S. Smith, The Globalization of World Politics, 1st or 2nd eds., Oxford University Press.]
[Doyle, Michael. Ways of War and Peace: Realism, Liberalism, and Socialism. W. W. Norton, 1997.]
[An excellent summary of the claims asserted by Realists and Liberals is found in Chapters 7-10 and 13 in John Baylis and Steve Smith, eds., The Globalization of World Politics, 3rd ed. Oxford University Press, 2001. On reserve in Bird Libary]
[Mod 6 Core claims of Marxisms(s)]
6. February 10 Choosing rationally
.
Mod 7 Relations of 'rationality': 'bounded rationality'
(cognitively, resource-limited, knowlege-limited); 'satisficing'; rational expectations; prospect theory
[Herbert A. Simon, "Theories of Decision-Making in Economics and Behavioral Science," American Economic Review 49, 3, (1959) 253-283. Stable URL:
Jack S. Levy, "Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations," International Studies Quarterly 41, 1 (1997), 87-112 Stable URL:
7. February 15 Discerning the 'national interest' A Damascus office for us? Editorial (Editorial derived from) News arising from an editorial News News
Draft reports on Topic 1 are due at 6 pm
Read: Welch, Intro. and Ch 1
Mod 8 Perception of the 'self' and 'other': reflective modeling
Martin Hollis and Steve Smith, "Roles and Reasons in Foreign Policy Decision Making,"British Journal of Political Science 16, 3 ( 1986), 269-286. Stable URL:
8. February 17 Identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities -- who does it and how? News
Read: Welch, Ch 2
9. February 22 Overview of processes, part 1 : formulating options, setting agendas, limiting voice (participation). News News
Read: Welch, Ch 3
Mod 9 Bureaucratic politics Graham T. Allison; Morton H. Halperin, "Bureaucratic Politics: A Paradigm and Some Policy Implications," World Politics 24, Supplement (1972), 40-79. Stable URL:
Mod 10 Loosely coupled decision making systems: 'behavioral' theory of the firm
[Richard M. Cyert and Herbert Simon, The Behavioral Theory of the Firm, chapter 5.] (on 2-hour Reserve in Bird Library).
Jack S. Levy, "Organizational Routines and the Causes of War, "International Studies Quarterly 30, 2 (1986) 193-222. Stable URL:
Practice 7 How bureaucracies exert power
[David Mitchell, Making Foreign Policy: Presidential Management Of The Decision-making Process, Ashgate, 2005, chapters 7 and 8 (on 2-hour Reserve in Bird Library)]
10. February 24 News News News News
Final reports on Topic 1 are due at 6 pm.
Presentations in class on Topic 1. LaPlante
Read Welch, Ch 4
11. March 1 (1) Overview of processes, part 2: small group interactions, exit and access, lobbying participants. (2) Introduction to Topic 2: Formulate important components of a theory of foreign policy change and apply it to two cases. News News News News News News
Practice 8 Exercising power, leverage and bandwagoning, domestic pressures[David S. Scharfstein and Jeremy C. Stein, "Herd Behavior and Investment", American Economic Review 80, No. 3 1990), 465-479. Stable URL:
Mod 11 Can public opinion influence leadership?
Margaret G. Hermann and Joe D. Hagan, "International Decision Making: Leadership Matters, "Foreign Policy 110, Special Edition (1998), 124-137. Stable URL:
[Neta C. Crawford, "The Passion of World Politics: Propositions on Emotion and Emotional Relationships," International Security 24, 4 (2000), 116-156.]
[David McElhinney and Tony Proctor, "The concept of entrapment and decision-making,"Management Decision 43, 2 (2005), 189 - 202.]
Mod 12 Advising and advisory systems
[Alexander L. George, "The Case for Multiple Advocacy in Making Foreign Policy," American Political Science Review 66, 3 (1972),751-785. Stable URL: ]
12. March 3 Overview of processes News News
Read Welch, Ch 5
13. March 8 Supplementing, extending and (if necessary) correcting Welch's theory
Read Welch, Ch 6 and Conclusion
Mod 14 Making decisions under pressure, risky shift, conservative shift and 'Groupthink'
[Paul 't Hart, Groupthink in Government, A Study of Small Groups and Policy Failure, Johns Hopkins Press 1990, Part II.]
Eric Stern and Bengt Sundelius, "The essence of 'Groupthink'," Mershon International Studies Review 38, 1 (1994),101-107. Stable URL:
14. March 10 Formal expressions of policy in speeches and documents. Editorial
Read Welch, Ch 6
15. March 22 Less formal expressions of policy in speeches, documents and through the media Zorin-1 CMC chronology Better Chronology Event or policy?
16. March 24 Barriers to learning about actual foreign policies: secrecy, self-interested accounts, and forgetfulness CRS on secrecy "secret policy?" Policy vs implementation Foreign policy?
1/2 China Draft reports on Topic 2 are due by 7pm; hardcopy only is acceptable.
17. March 29 Comparing processes of foreign policy making Numbering, American style Number,Chinese style
[James N. Rosenau, Comparing Foreign Policies,Wiley, 1975.] [Pastor, ibid.]
18. March 31 Introduction
to simulation: Briefing on the class exercise
19. April 5 Presentations in class on Topic 2.
Final reports on Topic 2 are due.
20. April 7 Begin exercise on crisis decision making: Iteration 1, Session 1 News
21. April 12 Assessment of Iteration 1
Reading: TBA [Raser, J. R., Campbell, D. T., & Chadwick, R. W. (1970). Gaming and Simulation for Developing Theory Relevant to International Relations, General Systems Yearbook, 15,183-204.]
22. April 14 Issues of policy change in parliamentary democracies News
Required Reading: George Tsebelis, British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 25, No. 3 (Jul., 1995), pp. 289-325. Stable URL:
23. April 19 Issues of Great Power policy News-Syria News-Iran
Practice 8 Examples from US practice
Required Practice 9 NSDM93
[Kerry Mullins and Aaron Wildavsky, "The Procedural Presidency of George [H. W.] Bush,"Political Science Quarterly 107, 1 (1992), 31-62. Stable URL: ]
24. April 21 Exercise continues: Iteration 2 Personnel
25. April 26 Assessment of Iteration 2
26. April 28 Decision making processes often featured in the news
Practice 10 The formal "policy review"
Practice 11 Speechmaking; rhetorical salesmanship
Required Ronald Reagan, 23 March 1983, "Address," Here Color coded version.
Practice 12 Public diplomacy
Required Peter G. Peterson speech
27. May 3 Conclusion and course evaluation News News
Final reports on the exercise are due.
