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Political Science 367.001 & Middle East Studies 367.001: Oil, Water and War
MW 12:45-2:05, (Class Registration Number -- Psc 24206 or MES 24350), Maxwell Hall 111
Instructor James P. Bennett, jbennett@maxwell.syr.edu
Fresh water and hydrocarbons (of which our interest is primarily in petroleum and natural gas) are unevenly distributed over the earth. Their natural locations do not correspond closely the locations of people who wish to consume them. Demands for fresh water and for petroleum and natural gas continue to grow rapidly. Supplies generally have not been increasing as rapidly. Many policy makers and scholars expect increased conflict over the control of these two commodities. Some experts have claimed that, whereas the 20th century was characterized by a global struggle for petroleum, the 21st century will be marked by a struggle for water. But we haven't finished the "Petroleum Age" just yet. Violent conflict, if it occurs, may arise in the form of internal war or inter-state war or perhaps even the emerging phenomenon that we call "international terrorism." Non-violent conflict, including market competition, may take new forms as well. This course introduces us to the current level of knowledge about historical connections among war, on the one hand, and the resources of petroleum and fresh water, on the other. It also present alternative claims about how competition for these goods will be expressed in the future.
The purpose of the course is to prepare students to engage in debates about policies that states and other entities might pursue to satisfy needs for petroleum and water.
The class will divide into seven or eight small 'consulting firms,' each hypothetically working for a different client. In the first half of the course, the 'firms' study petroleum problems. At the end of the first half, they deliver collective reports to the class in a symposium which extends over two class meetings. In the second half of the semester, they repeat the exercise, addressing water problems. Most Wednesday meetings of the class will be devoted to discussions among consultants -- to conceptualize, plan, research, and write a policy paper for the particular client. Most Monday meetings will feature lecture and discussion.
Every consulting firm consists of a manager plus several specialists. The manager, like the specialists, prepares a portion of the firm's report. He or she additionally submits a one-page progress report, describing the work of the previous week, at every class on Monday. With the advice of the specialists, the manager will outline the report and assign specific component of it to the specialists. The specialists will be graded on their own component of the report and upon the entire report, as described below.
If you have not completed a solid, university-level course on international politics, I strongly urge you to postpone taking this course.
Readings:
To get us started, two books have been ordered at Follett's Orange Student Bookstore (Marshall Square):
Daniel Yergin, The Prize, Free Press, 1993. ISBN: 0671799320. [Denoted Y in the schedule below.]
Jan Selby, Water, Power and Politics in the Middle East: The Other Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. I.B.Taurus, 2003. ISBN: 1860649343. [Denoted S in the schedule below.]
Formal requirements:
Two reports (individual and collective components), each worth a maximum of 28 points. Points are earned in two phases: a draft component is due on the dates indicated in the schedule; it is graded quickly and returned to its author for revisions. The final report by the firm is due at the time of the oral presentation. Every member of the firm receives the same grade for the firm's final report, but draft grades are particular to the author. For instance, in the best outcome you will receive 14 points for the draft and another 14 points for the final report, a total of 28. At the middle of the semester we dissolve the firms which worked on problems of petroleum to create new firms which will address problems of water.
Five unannounced short quizzes covering assigned reading and lectures, scored 0-6. The top four test scores will aggregate to a maximum of 24 points. A quiz might occur almost every class meeting: meetings at which a quiz cannot occur are denoted by # on the schedule. Several timely short articles and news items will be linked to the syllabus. If I discuss them in class, they may be covered in a quiz at the following class meeting.
The Instructor's estimation of your contribution to the work of your consulting firm and to the class as a whole, maximum of 12 points
Peer estimation (by the members of your firm) of your contribution to the work of your firm, maximum of 8 points at each firm.
Total maximum score: 100 points.
There is no final examination as such. Note that the final consulting reports are due on the day of their presentation to the class.
If you experience any learning disability, as described here, please see me to work out an accommodation.
This course applies the university's
policy of academic integrity
Email is generally the quickest way to communicate with me outside class, but I sometimes do not read my email over weekends. I do not accept papers by email. After Wednesday, 22 October, I will not sign 'drop' forms.
Problems with petroleum / natural gas:
1. Prospects for the White Stream natural gas initiative (client: Office of the Prime Minister, Ukraine) (start)
2. How can Brunei best develop its petroleum claims in the South China Sea (client: Government of Brunei Darussalam) (start) (start)
3. What are the actual petroleum resources of Saudi Arabia (client: TotalFinaElf ) (start) (start)
4. Is trading of petroleum and petroleum products on the NYMEX fair? (client: China Ministry of Commerce) (start) (start)
5. Where and how should Abu Dhabi spend its petrodollars? (client: Abu Dhabi Investment Authority) (start)
6. Is international transportation of liquefied natural gas safe? (client: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Turkey) (start)
7. How significantly should we invest in exploration for oil and gas in the arctic? (client: StatoilHydro) (start) (start)
Problems with water:
1. The Tigris-Euphrates Basin
2. The Jordan River system, including Golan
3. Desalination for urban water
4. Provision of potable water to Baghdad
5. Privatization of water supply and distribution to the public
6. Water supply for a country with little land: diversification in Singapore
7. Private su-ply of public water in the Middle East
8. Utilizing the water resources of the North American Great Lakes
('#' indicates that there will be no quiz on the corresponding date)
Petroleum and natural gas: Firms
1. # August 25 (Monday) Introduction
2. # August 27 (Wednesday) Petroleum to World War I (Y chapters 1-8) Notes
[September 1 Labor Day: no class]
4. September 8 (Monday) Consulting firms organize and receive
instructions from their client
Notes
Quiz
5. September 10 (Wednesday) Oil in World War II and the onset of the Cold
War (Y 16-21) Report format Notes
Notes
Quiz
7. September 17 (Wednesday) Decolonization and state claims to ownership (Y 22-24) News News Quiz Notes
8. September 22 (Monday) Consulting firms assess information resources News Quiz
9. September 24 (Wednesday) "Countries vs companies" (Y 25-28) News Quiz Notes
10. September 29 (Monday) Consulting firms begin drafting Oil for China Quiz Sovereign funds News
[October 1 Eid al Fitr: no class]
11. October 6 (Monday) The importance of OPEC (Y 29-33) Oil prices Quiz
12. October 8 (Wednesday) Drafting and 'repairs' Quiz
13. October 13 (Monday) Developments since the end of Yergin's study (Y 34-36; Tertzakian, chapters 3-4) Also consult: chronology http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/chron.html (and link at bottom to detailed chronology for 2005-6) Quiz Notes
14. October 15 (Wednesday) Consulting firms prepare media for presentation Quiz
15. # October 20 (Monday) Final Reports on Petroleum, Session 1 News about impact of prices on petrostates SA Oil News
16. # October 22 (Wednesday) Final Reports on Petroleum, Session 2
17. October 27 (Monday) Final Reports on Petroleum, Session 3, and Evaluation
Water: Firms
18. October 29 (Wednesday) Sources and uses of fresh water.
19. November 3 (Monday)
(S 3-4; Aaron T. Wolf,
20. November 5 (Wednesday) (S 5-6) Consulting firms assess information resources
21. November 10 (Monday) Sharing, conservation and technologies to reduce demand
(Franklin M. Fisher, Annette Huber-Lee, et al., Liquid Assets: An Economic
Approach for Water Management and Conflict Resolution in the Middle East and
Beyond, Chapters 4 and 6)
22. November 12 (Wednesday) Consulting firms begin drafting (S 7-8)
23. November 17 (Monday) Control of water as political leverage News Quiz
24. November 19 (Wednesday) Do we have a
right to water as a private good? News
25. November 24 (Monday) Is the 21st century going to be different? Draft reports due. News News
[November 26 Thanksgiving break: no class]
26. # December 1 (Monday) Final Reports on Water, Session 1
27. # December 3 (Wednesday) Final Reports on Water, Session 2.
December 8, All firms' written reports are due in hard copy, my office, by 5:30 pm..
Other readings of use:
Peter Tertzakian , A Thousand Barrels a Second: The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World. McGraw-Hill, 2006 (on closed reserve at Bird Library).
E. G. Frankel, Oil and Security: A World beyond Petroleum. Springer 2007.
Fred Pearce, When the Rivers Run Dry: Water--The Defining Crisis of the Twenty-First Century. Beacon Press, 2006 (on closed reserve at Bird Library).
Stephen Merrett, Introduction to the Economies of Water Resources, An International Perspective. Routledge 1997.
Thomas Homer-Dixon
US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration
Arun P. Elhance, Hydropolitics in the 3rd World: Conflict and Cooperation in International River Basins. United States Institute of Peace, 1999;
Peter H. Gleick, "Water and Conflict: Fresh Water Resources and International Security," International Security 18:1, 79-112
Peter H.Gleick, Heather Cooley, David Katz, Emily Lee, The World's Water, 2006-2007. Island Press. 2006
Prof. Vince Ferraro's
compilation
How I decide whether a quiz occurs.