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Political Science 367.001 & Middle East Studies 367.001: Oil, Water and War
MW 2:15-3:35, (Class Registration Number -- Psc 52302 or MES 52387), Crouse-Hinds Hall 001
Instructor James P. Bennett, jbennett@syr.edu
Fresh water and hydrocarbons (of which our interest is primarily in petroleum and natural gas) are unevenly distributed over the earth. Their natural locations do not correspond closely the locations of people who wish to consume them. Demands for fresh water and for petroleum and natural gas continue to grow rapidly. Supplies generally have not been increasing as rapidly. Many policy makers and scholars expect increased conflict over the control of these two commodities. Some experts have claimed that, whereas the 20th century was characterized by a global struggle for petroleum, the 21st century will be marked by a struggle for water. But we haven't finished the "Petroleum Age" just yet. Violent conflict, if it occurs, may arise in the form of internal war or inter-state war or perhaps even the emerging phenomenon that we call "international terrorism." Non-violent conflict, including market competition, may take new forms as well. This course introduces us to the current level of knowledge about historical connections among war, on the one hand, and the resources of petroleum and fresh water, on the other. It also present alternative claims about how competition for these goods will be expressed in the future.
The purpose of the course is to prepare students to engage in debates about policies that states and other entities might pursue to satisfy needs for petroleum and water.
We begin with 8 important questions. For each question we identify several influential parties in the world -- our "clients" -- who are deeply interested to get answers to the questions. Each student is assigned to try to answer one of these questions for one of the clients, thereby offering useful advice to the client. In the first half of the course, we study petroleum problems. At the end of the first half, we offer reports to the class in a symposium which extends over two class meetings. In the second half of the semester, we repeat the exercise, addressing water problems. Most Wednesday meetings of the class will be devoted in part to discussions among consultants -- to conceptualize, plan, research, and write a policy paper for the particular client. Most Monday meetings will feature lecture and discussion.
If you have not completed a solid, university-level course on international politics, I strongly urge you to postpone taking this course.
Readings:
To get us started, three books have been ordered at Follett's Orange Student Bookstore (Marshall Square):
Daniel Yergin, The Prize, Free Press, 1993. [Denoted Y in the schedule below.]
Kurt M. Campbell and Jonathan Price, eds., The Global Politics of Energy. The Aspen Institute, 2008. [Denoted E in the schedule below.]
Jerome Delli Priscoli and Aaron T. Wolf , Managing and Transforming Water Conflicts, Cambridge University Press, 2010. [Denoted P in the schedule below.] Now available at Follett's Orange Bookstore.
Formal requirements:Two reports (individual and collective components), each worth a maximum of 28 points. Points are earned in two phases: a draft report is due on the dates indicated in the schedule; it is graded quickly and returned to its author for revisions. The final report is due at the time of the oral presentation. For instance, in the best outcome you will receive 14 points for the draft and another 14 points for the final report, a total of 28. At the middle of the semester we reassign the analysts who worked on problems of petroleum to work on problems of water.
Five unannounced short quizzes covering assigned reading and lectures, scored 0-6. The top four test scores will aggregate to a maximum of 24 points. A quiz might occur almost every class meeting: meetings at which a quiz cannot occur are denoted by # on the schedule. Several timely short articles and news items will be linked to the syllabus. If I discuss them in class, they may be covered in a quiz at the following class meeting.
The Instructor's estimation of your contribution to the work to the class as a whole, maximum of 12 points.
Total maximum score: 92 points.
There is no final examination as such. Note that the final consulting reports are due on the day of their presentation to the class.
If you experience any learning disability, as described here, please see me to work out an accommodation.
This course applies the university's
policy of academic integrity
Email is generally the quickest way to communicate with me outside class, but I sometimes do not read my email over weekends. I do not accept papers by email.
Problems with petroleum / natural gas:
1. What are the prospects for the Nabucco natural gas initiative?
(clients: (a) Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko of Ukraine; (b) Vice-Chairman of Gazprom Alexander Medvedev; (c) Chief Executive Officer Paolo Scaroni of ENI; (d) Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey; (e) Joschka Fischer, adviser to the Nabucco Pipeline Project; (f) U.S. Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R. Indiana).
2. What are the most promising future sources of petroleum for the rapidly growing economy of the People's Republic of China?
(clients: (a) China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) (b) China Ministry of Foreign Affairs; (c) Vietnam Foreign Ministry; (d) United States Department of Energy; (e) Exxon-Mobil Corporation; (f) CNPC Exploration & Development Company (of China); (g) Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan)
3. Can the world rely upon Saudi petroleum reserves?
(clients: (a) Yves-Louis Darricarr�re, President of Exploration & Production, Total S. A.; (b) Nansen G. Saleri , Manager, Reservoir Management, Saudi Aramco; (c) Mahmoud M. Abdul-Baqi,Vice President, Exploration, Saudi Aramco; (d) Simmons & Company International; (e) Institute for Energy, Joint Research Centre, European Commission; (f) General David H. Petraeus, Commander,Central Command, United States Army
4. Is trading of petroleum and petroleum futures on the NYMEX fair?
(clients: (a) China Ministry of Commerce; (b) Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries; (c) Hugo Chavez, President of Venezuela; (d) United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); (e) Stop Oil Speculation Now)
5. Does the global economy adequately recycle petrodollars today? (start)
(clients: (a) U.S. House Financial Services Committee; (b) Abu Dhabi Investment Authority; (c) The Government Pension Fund - Global, of Norway; (d) Libyan Investment Authority; (e) Citigroup; (f) Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation;
6. Is international transportation of liquefied natural gas safe and economical?(clients: (a) Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Turkey; (b) Qatargas; (c) NIOC-LNG (National Iranian Oil Company); (d) Maine Gov. John Baldacci; (e) Admiral Thad W. Allen, Commandant, United States Coast Guard; (f) GDF SUEZ (formerly Gaz de France); (g) California Energy Commission; (h) Lloyd's)
7. Should the world count upon quickly exploiting the oil and gas resources of the arctic?
(clients: (a) Statoil-Hydro; (b) Exxon-Mobil; (c) Chevron Canada; (d) Defenders of Wildlife; (e) Inuit Circumpolar Council; (f) Nunavut Kavamanga (Government of Nunavut); (g) Prime Minister Kuupik Kleist, Home Rule Government of Greenland;)
Problems with water:
1. Can the waters of the Tigris-Euphrates Basin be fairly divided?
2. Must Israel consume most of the waters of the Jordan River system, including Golan?
3. Is desalination for urban water supplies feasible and economical in the Persian/Arabian Gulf?
4. Can a municipal water authority provide potable water to Baghdad?
5. Under what conditions can privatization of water supply and distribution to the public succeed in South America?
6. Must Singapore become increasingly dependent upon Malaysia for its water supply?
7. What are the implications of a proposed hydroelectric and irrigation dam on the Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) River?
8. How can the water resources of the North American Great Lakes best be utilized?
('#' indicates that there will be no quiz on the corresponding date)
Petroleum and natural gas: Assignment of policy analysts
1. # January 20 Introduction
2. # January 25 Petroleum to World War I (Y chapters 1-8) News Notes
4. February 1 Analysts organize and receive instructions from their client News Notes Quiz Anwers
5. February 3 Oil in World War II and the onset of the Cold War (Y 16-21) Report format Quiz
7. February 10 Decolonization and state claims to ownership (Y 25-28) (Comments on public, private, club and common goods) News Notes Quiz
8. February 15 Analysts assess information resources News News Video Anwers Quiz
9. February 17 "Countries vs companies" (Y 29-33) Recap Notes EEZ Market manipulation? News News News? Anwers Quiz
10. February 22 Analysts begin drafting Developments since the end of Yergin's study (Y 34-36; Tertzakian, chapters 3-4) Also consult: chronology http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/chron.html (and link at bottom to detailed chronology for 2006-07) Pipedreams? More pipedreams? LNG-export LNG-import News/Editorial News Quiz Notes
11. February 24 The importance of OPEC (E 3, 4) Members (thanks to H.L.) Tar sands 1 Tar sands 2 Fracking 1 Fracking 2 Quiz
12. March 1 Drafting and 'repairs' (E 1, 5, [8]) Quiz
13. March 3 Drafts due (Tertzakian chapters 5-8) Notes News News News Alarmist Map Quiz
14. March 8 Analysts prepare media for presentation News News Quiz
15. March 10 Work on editing, again News (Iran) News News Vitol Confirm? Answers Quiz
16. # March 22 Final Reports on Petroleum, Session 1 News News News
17. #March 24 Final Reports on Petroleum, Session 2
Water: Clients
18. March 29 Sources and uses of fresh water.
19. March 31 Aaron T. Wolf,
20. April 5 Analysts assess information resources (P C.2, C.9, C.10, C.4, B.2, B.5)Notes News News
21. April 7 Sharing, conservation and technologies to reduce demand
(Franklin M. Fisher, Annette Huber-Lee, et al., Liquid Assets: An Economic
Approach for Water Management and Conflict Resolution in the Middle East and
Beyond, Chapters 4 and 6 [Bird Reserve]) Read this instead. Answers Resource Oil item Quiz
22. April 12 Analysts begin drafting (P C.1, C.3, C.5, C.8, C.12, C.15, B.4) News News Quiz
23. April 14 Control of water as political leverage (P C.14, C.16, B.3) News-Nile Quiz
24. April 19 Do we have a right to water as a private good? (P Appendix D) By-the-way Notes News-OPEC News News News News News Quiz
25. April 21 Is the 21st century going to be different? (P 3-6). Draft reports due. Tomorrow News News Quiz26. # April 26 Final Reports on Water, Session 1
27. # April 28 Final Reports on Water, Session 2.News News
28. May 3 Final Reports on Water, Session 3 News News News : transition : News News NSAS news Aramco's spin Old news Old news News News of a sort Final reports due. Yergin
.
Other readings of use:
Peter Tertzakian , A Thousand Barrels a Second: The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World. McGraw-Hill, 2006 (on closed reserve at Bird Library).
E. G. Frankel, Oil and Security: A World beyond Petroleum. Springer 2007.
Fred Pearce, When the Rivers Run Dry: Water--The Defining Crisis of the Twenty-First Century. Beacon Press, 2006 (on closed reserve at Bird Library).
Stephen Merrett, Introduction to the Economies of Water Resources, An International Perspective. Routledge 1997.
Thomas Homer-Dixon
US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration
Arun P. Elhance, Hydropolitics in the 3rd World: Conflict and Cooperation in International River Basins. United States Institute of Peace, 1999;
Peter H. Gleick, "Water and Conflict: Fresh Water Resources and International Security," International Security 18:1, 79-112
Peter H.Gleick, Heather Cooley, David Katz, Emily Lee, The World's Water, 2006-2007. Island Press. 2006
Prof. Vince Ferraro's
compilation
How I decide whether a quiz occurs.
