Jim and Dragi's Talk, Conversations in Conflict Studies, 17 February 2005

Jim's introduction: (0) Geography is not quite fate.

The Syrian Dilemma at the societal level of aggregation: All Likely Futures Are Very Bad

    Future 1: Efforts toward liberal economic and democratic reform produce "The Lebanese Civil War of 1975-c. 1990"

    Future 2: Efforts to muddle through produce "The Iranian Revolution 1979 - ?"

    Future 3: Defying the West leads to becoming "'Cambodia to Iraq's 'Vietnam'"

The Syrian Dilemma at the level of the ordinary family or clan: Dissent is punished but inactivity is ruinous, so try to get out.

Demographic pressures are inexorable.  (1)  Sunni Moslems, Shi'i Moslems, Christians, Alawites (Alevis, Nusaiyris), Kurds (4)

    The population is too young to remember past fiascos  of 1948, 1967, 1973, etc., except via government interpretations.

The economy is stagnant.  Corruption is pervasive and unpredictable.

    Half the population remains in a traditional agricultural sector of low productivity and dependence upon rivers from Turkey. (3)

    The economy relies upon (a) remittances from workers abroad (5) and (b) access to Lebanon assured by control of Lebanon.

    Oil resources are meager and declining. (6)

There is no Syrian nationalism, only Arab nationalism.  The national identity is defined as anti-Zionism. (2)

    The regime is headed by Alawites, but has since taking power in 1966 co-opted all other groups except Kurds (8).  The ruling Ba'th Party is totally corrupt, geriatric, discredited, and divided.  Dragi will address this.

    (The country is not a rentier state.  Formerly, it received transfer payments from the Gulf  inreturn for its unwavering anti-Israel stance.  It is now       internationally isolated.)

    (Personally popular President Bashar Assad may wish "reforms," but if so he appears unable to deliver them.  At a recent conference intended to attract Syrian expatriates to invest a "home," Assad dedicated his speech to castigating Zionism and the U.S.  This is not what the audience wanted to hear.)

Syria is unlikely in our time ever to get back the Golan.  Yet all Syrians count this as essential. (10) Water (11 changed 2008) Quneytra (12)  The alternative is paralysis in foreign affaris.

 If all this weren't bad enough, Syria is blamed for assassinating foreign Lebanese PM Hariri. (13) al Jazira (14)

Update:  September 2000: The situation for Syria is worse on all fronts.