The Overstretch Myth - Can the Indispensable Nation Be a Debtor Nation?
by Stuart S. Brown and David H. Levey

EU Enlargement - 2002, The Critical Year
by Stuart S. Brown and Dwyfor Evans

Key Points

• Radical institutional change in Central Europe supports superior growth potential and convergence towards Western European per capita income levels of the foreseeable future.
   
• The promise of EU and EMU entry presents historically unique opportunities in Central European local markets during the next few years.
   
• We attach high probabilities to early EU entry (2004) for front-runners Hungary and Czech Republic (85%), moderately lower for Poland (75%), and markedly lower for Slovakia (45%).
   
• Convergence will prove non-linear:  expect the temporary reversal of disinflation and landmark political events in both Western and Central Europe during 2002 to present multi-directional, "non-convergence" trade options.